Now that the season is over, congratulations to the back to back champion Heat, it's time to figure out how the Lakers can get back to the mountaintop. Roster changes are a guarantee. The only question will be who will stay and who will go. To answer that you have to look at the Lakers organization from a cap space, coaching choice, and "Kobe's last run" perspective. These are the factors that weigh the most heavily on the decisions they will be making.
Cap Space
Without getting into the gory details, cap space is simply the amount of money a team has to bring in players. There is a limit to how much a team can spend, and if a team goes over that then they must pay penalties called the "luxury tax". Most teams are unwilling to pay this tax and therefore keep their player salaries as low as possible. Typically the Lakers have paid as much as necessary to have a winning team. However, the rules are different than they use to be, and the luxury tax can be A LOT higher than it used to be. Also, the rules on trading/ signing players change for luxury tax teams as well. I bring this up because the Lakers will sign players this off season with those rules in mind.
Currently the Lakers are over the salary cap and paying luxury tax. For next season, they only have one player signed (Nash), and can start fresh. Depending on their plans this may limit who they want to bring in this year as they may not want to bring in someone on a long contract which would damage their flexibility.
Coaching Choice
When the Lakers chose head coach Mike D'Antoni over Phil Jackson lots of fans were in uproar. Whether that was the right choice or not doesn't matter currently. D'Antoni is the coach, and as such he's going to need players to fit his system. He needs teams that are athletic, like to run, and shoot lots of 3's. The Lakers team as constructed is not elite at any of those skills. If he remains coach, look for the Lakers to get players to fit that mold.
Kobe's Last Run
We all know Kobe is only going to play for a few more years. He's still as focused as ever on getting #6. Because of this the Lakers are more inclined to surround him with experienced players rather than young players who will take time to develop. It's a gift and a curse though because the young players tend to fit D'Antoni's system more, and they can also help provide rest for Bryant.
Roster Changes
Now that we understand the framework the Lakers are using, let's look at some current and potential roster changes from last year's squad.
Gone: Ebanks, Goudelock, Duhon,
All players who contributed little on the court last year
Likely gone: MWP, Jamison
MWP is top candidate to be amnestied. It would save the Lakers $30M in luxury tax.
Jamison took a pay cut and spent time away from home for the shot at a ring last year. Can't see him doing it again.
Likely staying: Clark, Morris
Clark is a free agent. He already said he'd take a pay cut so as long as another team doesn't offer him a ridiculous contract he'll be back. Morris has been invited to summer camp. If he performs well he'll be back.
Staying: Sacre, Nash, Meeks, Bryant, Blake, Hill
Pending a trade all these guys will be back
???: Howard, Gasol
Talking with other fans, a lot of folks are mad at Dwight Howard, and maybe rightfully so. Reports come out everyday that he doesn't like the coach, can't play with Kobe, wants to go to Houston, etc. While it all may be true it's important to remember that they are just reports and rumors. Not fact. Take it with a grain of salt. Pau's stay with the team has a lot to do with Dwight's decision. If Howard leaves there is little doubt the Lakers will keep Gasol to play center. If he stays they may trade him to get some younger players who fit the coach's system better. I think Dwight will stay, but you just never know. One thing is for sure, Lakers fans only want players that want to be here. It's a privilege to play for this ball club.
P.S.- Free agency starts today, so now Dwight Howard can start talking to teams. July 10th is the earliest he'd be able to sign any contract with any team.
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